Will Alaves beat Valencia in the La Liga on 15 September?

No — Alaves are unlikely to beat Valencia because the models give a draw the highest probability at 50%, compared with 42% for a home win. Valencia’s poor LLLLD form and Alaves’ strong 11-goal, five-match run favor the hosts, but the consensus 1-1 score and low 1.0-0.7 expected goals point more toward a stalemate.

Yes — Alaves come into this on a strong LWWDW run scoring 11 goals in five matches, while Valencia are in freefall with LLLLD and just 1 goal scored across their last 5. Home advantage at Mendizorroza plus Valencia's woeful attack (conceding 10 in that span) heavily favors Alaves getting a positive result. Even though the model consensus leans draw at 50%, the 42% home win probability combined with Alaves' clear momentum edge makes a home win more plausible than Valencia salvaging anything.

Yes — Alaves are positioned to take all three points given Valencia's dreadful form of four losses in their last five matches. While the models lean toward a draw, Alaves have been lethal at home and recently scored 11 goals across their last five fixtures compared to Valencia's solitary one. With home-field advantage at Mendizorroza and an expected goals edge of 1.0 to 0.7, Alaves have the attacking momentum required to secure the victory.

No — Alaves will not beat Valencia because the TuringStats models give home win only 42% against a 50% draw probability and just 8% for the visitors. Valencia’s LLLLD form and 1 goal scored in five matches still leave a stalemate as the modal outcome, matching the most common predicted score of 1-1. Alaves’ LWWDW run and 11 goals scored are real but not enough to overcome the consensus draw lean at Mendizorroza.

No — despite Alaves’ strong LWWDW form and Valencia’s awful LLLLD run with only one goal scored and ten conceded, the match data points to a draw as the most likely single result at 50%, while a home win is just 42%. Valencia’s desperation and the prior scoreless draw at this venue last October also suggest they can frustrate Alaves enough to avoid defeat. With the expected-goals tilt modest at 1.0-0.7, I lean against Alaves getting all three points.

No — the TuringStats model consensus gives Alaves only a 42% home win probability versus a 50% draw lean, with the most common predicted score being 1-1. While Alaves' form (LWWDW, 11 goals scored) is clearly superior to Valencia's dire run (LLLLD, 1 goal scored in 5), the head-to-head record shows Valencia won the most recent meeting 3-2 in March 2026, and the expected goals (1.0-0.7) suggest a tight, low-scoring affair. The data points more toward a draw than a decisive Alaves victory.

Yes — Alaves' dominant recent form (3 wins and 1 draw in their last 5, scoring 11 goals) sharply contrasts with Valencia's dismal run (4 losses, scoring just 1 goal). The expected goals (1.0-0.7) and home advantage further tilt this toward an Alaves victory, despite models slightly favoring a draw. The head-to-head shows Alaves can beat Valencia, and their current momentum makes it likely.

No — I lean against an Alaves win because the TuringStats models give the draw a higher probability (50%) than a home win (42%), with 1-1 as the most common predicted score. Alaves are in strong form (LWWDW, 11 scored) and Valencia are in freefall (LLLLD, 1 goal in 5), so a home win is plausible, but the expected goals of just 1.0-0.7 point to a tight, low-scoring game. Given the models favor the draw over any Alaves victory, the likelier answer to 'will Alaves win' is no.

No — the TuringStats models put a draw at 50% versus only 42% for an Alaves win, so the likeliest single outcome is not a home victory. Alaves' form is strong (11 scored, 5 conceded in five games), but their most recent result was a 2-1 loss to Racing Santander and the most common predicted score is a 1-1 draw. Valencia are in terrible form with four losses and one draw, yet the xG spread of 1.0-0.7 suggests a tight, compressed match rather than a clear Alaves win. I lean toward Alaves failing to take all three points.

Yes — Alaves's recent form is dominant, with 11 goals scored and just 5 conceded across their last five matches, while Valencia have scored only 1 goal in their last five and sit in freefall with four losses. Valencia's attack has completely stalled, making it hard to see them threatening at Mendizorroza. Although the model consensus leans draw at 50%, the 42% home win is the next most likely outcome, and the qualitative gap in form — Alaves beating Osasuna 5-2 and Villarreal 1-0 while Valencia shipped 5 to Barcelona — tips this decisively toward a home victory.